Global Electric Passenger Cars, Electric Commercial Vehicles, Lithium-Ion Batteries, Battery Chemistries and Cobalt Markets, 2022

The EV revolution is only beginning. It is possible that by 2025, the global electric vehicle (EV) market could exceed 100 million vehicles sold, and that by 2050, oil-based, internal combustion (ICE) engine driven vehicles no longer will be produced.

Further, governments are setting carbon emission targets for the automotive industry, while also subsidizing EV technology. Already, EV sales in Norway accounted for 32% of total new car sales in 2017. More significantly, China is investing heavily in EV technology and wants to become the market leader.

These changes have been driven by several, underlying global trends over the past 10 years including technological improvements leading to steadily cheaper lithium-ion batteries with greater range, safety and reliability. Plus, EVs are gradually becoming comparable to ICEs from the consumer’s viewpoint Finally, demand for EVs will significantly impact demand for certain commodities, e.g. cobalt.

These issues and more are discussed in this report. Specifically, this report covers:

Market Overview: historical moment, EV revolution, structural shifts, global trend, commodities implications, EV market size and growth, lithium-ion battery market size and growth, China leading way, cobalt scarcity.
Electric Vehicles: rise of EVs, realistic expectations, end of ICEs, hybrid electric vehicles market, PHEVs market, pure electric vehicle market, ICE-EV inflection point, powertrain equivalence, OEM NEV offerings, China dominance.
Commercial Electric Vehicles: not same as light vehicles, real-world cost and performance assumptions, charging infrastructure obstacles, battery scarcity premiums, Class 8 obstacles, technology obstacles, fuel cells vs. batteries, grid efficiency and costs.
Lithium-ion Batteries: types, verticals, advantages, components, cells and packs, expenses by types, operating margins, cost improvements and trends, chemicals mix, technology trends, shift to nickel, reuse/recycling.
Battery Chemistries: EV battery value chain, battery metals, cathode technology trends, cathode market size, cathode producers, technology roadmap, metals demand, cobalt in EV batteries, NMC 811, price trends, competitive environment.
Cobalt: supply, scrap recovery, DRC risk, China domination, explorations, new projects, supply shocks, substitution needed, EV cathodes, NMC 622, strategic reserves, inevitable deficits, metal vs. chemical balances, prices going higher.

Products Mentioned:

Internal Combustion Engines
Electric passenger cars
Electric commercial vehicles
Lithium-ion batteries
Battery chemistries
Cobalt
Hybrid electric vehicles
Plug-in electric vehicles
Battery electric vehicles
New energy vehicles
Powertrains
Class 8 trucks
Terminal tractors
Cathodes
Lithium-ion batteries
Nickel
Manganese
Rare earths
Fuel cells

Key Topics Covered:

1. Executive Summary

2. Introduction
Report Objectives
Methodology and Sources
Statistical Notes

3. Market Overview
Historical Moment
Dawn of the Lithium-ion Age
Electric Vehicle Revolution
Structural Shifts
Global Trend
Commodities Implications
EV Market Size and Growth
EVs Need Batteries
NMC and NCA Most Valuable
Lithium-ion Batteries Market Size and Growth
China Leads Electric Car Revolution
Cobalt Scarcest Vital Material
DRC Controls Supply
Glencore’s Outlook

4. Electric Vehicles
Rise of EVs
All Forecasts Are Anecdotal
Realistic Growth Expectations
Light Vehicles Definition
Internal Combustion Engine
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Plug-in Hybrids
Battery Electric Vehicles/EVs
Global Light Vehicle Sales
ICE Share of Global Vehicles Sales
Mild Hybrids Sales
HEV and PHEV Sales
Electric Vehicles Sales
xEVS Sales
Fuel Cell Vehicles Sales
New Energy Vehicle Sales
Inflection Point in ICE and EV Costs
Powertrain Costs Equivalence
OEM NEV Strategies
Current EV and PHEV Models by Brand
China Will Dominate

5. Commercial Electric Vehicles
Commercial Electric Vehicles Different Than Electric Light Vehicles
Battery Range and Cost Assumptions Not Realistic
Charging Infrastructure Obstacles
CEVs Still Need Transmissions
Real World Assumptions
Realistic Scenario
Daily Charge Utilization
No Battery Degradation Assumed
What If There Are No Shorter Routes
Operators Today are Human
Scarcity Premium for Batteries
Battery Cost and Payback
Revenue Loss and Battery Weight
Class 8 Trucks Face Similar Obstacles
Other Class 8 Assumptions
Driving >210 Miles Per Day
Drayage/Terminal Tractors
3rd Party Battery Leasing Obstacles
No Standardization of Battery Design
Swapping Battery Packs Is Difficult
Prohibitive Charging Investment
Fuel Cell Obstacles
Significant Infrastructure Obstacles
Charging a Fleet of Transit Buses
Prohibitive Infrastructure Costs
Required Technology Not Yet Developed
Alternative Charging Models
Grid Efficiency and Costs
Requirements to Achieve Grid Efficiency
Other Issues
Thermal Runaway
Reliance on Rare Earth Materials

6. Lithium-Ion Batteries
Battery Types, Verticals and Applications
Li-ion Battery Advantages
Disposable vs. Rechargeable Batteries
How Rechargeable Batteries Work
Li-ion Battery Components
Lithium-ion Battery Shapes
18650 vs. 2170
Battery Cells and Packs
Battery Energy Level and Lifespan
Battery Cost vs Selling Price
EV Battery Cost Structures
Technical Specifications and Materials
Best Cell Type
Battery Specification Differences
Cell Prices vs. Cell Costs
Raw Materials vs. Non-Materials Expenses
Operating Margins
Battery Cost Improvements
Ways to Reduce EV Battery Manufacturing Costs
Cost Drivers
Why Battery Costs Are Falling
Increasing Demand for EVs
Improving Chemical Material Mix of Battery Cells
Increasing Thickness of Electrodes
Technical Advancements in Cathodes, Anodes and Electrolytes
Innovations in Manufacturing Process
Battery Cost Structure
Tesla Model S
BMW i3
Costs in 2030
Material Costs
Other Costs
2030 Targets
Next Generation Battery Technology
Mild/Micro Hybridization a Big Growth Area
Battery Manufacturing Costs
Battery Pack Cost and EV Driving Range
Nickel to Benefit
NMC Batteries Key for EVs
Shift to Nickel
Battery Reuse and Recycling

7. Battery Chemistries
EV Battery Industry Value Chain
Battery Metals
Cathodes
Major Changes Ahead
Chemistries
Cathode Market Size
Cathode Producers
Cathode Capacity Additions
Technology Roadmap
NMC 811
Implications for Metal Demand
Cobalt
Bottom Line
Battery-Powered Growth
Market Is Tight
Price Goes Higher
2017 Price Spike
Battery Demand
Cobalt in EV Batteries
Nickel
Price Increases and Availability Issues
Competitive Environment
Ecopro
L&F

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8. Cobalt
Description
Key Points About the Cobalt Market
Cobalt Supply
Scrap Recovery
DRC Risk
China Cobalt Domination
Cobalt Exploration
New Cobalt Projects
Supply Shocks
Substitution Needed for EVs
Consumer Electronics and Other Applications
Superalloys
Electric Vehicles and Cobalt
EV Cathodes
NMC622 Becomes Dominant
Potential Scenarios
EVs Overtake Portable Electronics
NMC811
Cobalt Demand Overestimates
Strategic Reserves
Deficits Inevitable
Metal vs. Chemical Balances
Forecast Risks
Price Going Higher
Outlook